1. Powering Down Coal — COP26’s Impact on the Global Coal Power Fleet
2. Asia coal power pipeline to shrink by two thirds after China finance cut
3. European Carbon Permits Rise to Record After COP26
1. Powering Down Coal — COP26’s Impact on the Global Coal Power Fleet
The commitments to “no new coal”, ending fossil fuel financing, coal phase outs and carbon neutrality targets announced in the run-up to and at the UN climate summit in Glasgow are going to have an unprecedented impact on global coal power industry, the world’s largest CO2 emitting sector, according to new CREA analysis.
Key findings:
- 370 more coal plants (290 GW) given a close-by date. After the pledges presented in the run-up to and at the Glasgow Summit, 750 coal-fired power plants —equivalent to 550 gigawatts (GW)— around the world have a phase-out date, while another 1600 plants (1420 GW) are covered by carbon neutrality targets but stop short of a phase-out decisions. This is up from 380 plants (260 GW) with a phase-out date before the 2020–21 ambition-raising process that culminated in Glasgow.
- Only 170 plants (89 GW) are not covered by either type of commitment — 5% of the operating fleet today. This is down from 2,100 plants (1,800 GW) before the Glasgow process.
- 90 new coal power projects (88 GW) are likely to be cancelled due to “no new coal” and no new fossil fuel financing pledges — this is two-thirds of all planned coal plants outside of China.
- Another 130 new projects (165 GW), most importantly in China and Indonesia, are called into question as there is no room for them to operate under the country’s new zero-carbon targets.
- Not all coal phase-out decisions are aligned with the Paris Agreement goals. Only 250 existing coal power plants (180 GW) are scheduled to close by 2030 in the OECD and 130 plants (100 GW) outside the OECD have a closure date by 2050.
- With Germany’s expected 2030 phase-out decision and assuming the United States’ 2035 Clean Power Plan will mean a coal phase out by 2030, the number of coal power plants with a Paris-aligned phase-out date would increase to 590 (460 GW).
2. Asia coal power pipeline to shrink by two thirds after China finance cut
SHANGHAI, Nov 10 (Reuters) – Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to put an end to the financing of overseas projects, new research showed on Wednesday.
Excluding China and India’s domestic coal power programmes, there are now just 28 new coal-fired plants being planned across Asia, less than 30% of which have secured finance, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) think tanks said in a joint report.
“Once the final bastion of coal power, Asia’s coal power sector has witnessed wave after wave of coal power plant cancellations,” said GEM’s Russell Gray. “China’s pledge to stop financing coal power plants overseas will trigger one more wave.”
The report said nearly all of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka’s planned coal-fired power plants now face cancellation, as well as 65% of Indonesia’s.
However, there are still about 43 GW of projects already under construction throughout Asia, the report estimated.
Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to end China’s support for new overseas coal power plants during his video address to the United Nations General Assembly in September. The move meant that 99% of global development financing was now committed to the transition to clean energy. read more
According to the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, if all the China-financed overseas coal plants now under construction or being planned were cancelled, 646 million tonnes of annual CO2 emissions could be avoided, more than the total annual footprint of Canada.
As COP26 climate talks continue in Glasgow, China’s coal industry plans have come under increasing scrutiny.
China, the world’s biggest producer of greenhouse gases, has promised to switch to lower-carbon forms of energy, but it will only start to cut total coal consumption from 2026.
3. European Carbon Permits Rise to Record After COP26
(Bloomberg) — European carbon futures climbed to a record, following an agreement at the COP26 summit that seeks to reduce the use of fossil fuels and boost nations’ climate targets.
Benchmark prices rose as much as 5.9% to a record 66.97 euros ($76.25) a metric ton on ICE Endex on the first day of trading after the summit in Glasgow, Scotland. Making polluters pay for carbon permits is seen as a key way to cut emissions in Europe, and the European Union plans to extend the bloc’s trading scheme to more sectors.
In the short term, a 6% jump in natural gas prices on Monday — the third consecutive increase — has improved the profitability of burning coal, creating more demand for carbon permits. While gas prices have fallen from record levels last month, they still remain historically high, even before the start of the winter heating season.
The EU carbon price has been relatively flat in recent weeks despite volatile swings in the prices of gas and power.
“That price stability within a more chaotic energy price mix gave a lot of people and some new investors more confidence,” said Casey Dwyer, a portfolio manager at Andurand Capital Management LLP. The focus on carbon trading at the climate talks in Glasgow has also spurred investment in the EU market, he added.
“We’re still bullish” on carbon, Dwyer said.
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