1.5 pathways and progress made so far

Substantial progress has been made on scenarios limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of this century, as evidenced in the IPCC’s Special Report on Global warming of 1.5°C.  We are facing a gap between current action and the scenarios that will allow us to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C. The October 2022 revised UNFCCC Synthesis Report of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement indicated we are heading towards 2.7°C of warming by the end of the century.

The October 2022 revised UNFCCC Synthesis Report of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement indicated we are heading towards 2.7°C of warming by the end of the century.

In assessing the gap, it will be useful to look at emission reductions and limitations realised by 2020, which is an important milestone in particular for assessing commitments made under the Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol (KP2). As it looks now, although further data is needed, countries with commitments under KP2 collectively reduced their CO2 emissions by 32% between 1990 and 2020. When looking at all Annex 1 countries, reductions have been smaller but still reached 22% in 2020. This compares to an overall increase in global emissions of 53% by 2020.

CAN calls upon the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) of the Second Periodic Review of the long-term global goal to accept that only the IPCC’s C1 Illustrative Mitigation Pathway, which limits warming to 1.5°C with zero or limited overshoot, can ensure the achievement of the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement. This pathway assumes that emissions are reduced on average to 31 GtCO2-eq in 2030 and 9 GtCO2-eq in 2050.

Loss and Damage

This continues to be the dominant issue with Australian media covering this quite extensively.

Heed the words of the UNSG – “Loss and Damage can no longer be swept under the rug. It is a fundamental question of climate justice”. “The answers are in our hands and the clock is ticking….we are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator.”

Fossil Fuels

The reality is that around 80-90% of the emissions from the oil and gas supply chain come when the oil and gas is burned, not before – so when companies and countries try to distract focus onto the emissions elsewhere in the supply chain, they’re distracting attention onto only 10-20% of the climate pollution.

At this African COP, the fossil fuel industry has been pushing for massive gas developments to supply Europe. The dash for gas in Africa is not clean, and it is not a path to prosperity. It is fossil fuel colonialism, digging deeper into disaster.

the fossil fuel industry has been pushing for massive gas developments to supply Europe

Global Goal on Adaptation

“Too Little, Too Slow” says the recent  Adaptation Gap Report. Despite the overwhelming urgency for action and support, the first round of workshops on the Global Goal of Adaptation ended with so little, oh so slowly.

“Too Little, Too Slow”

One of the main issues is translating national-level negotiations with the reality that adaptation is best delivered locally. Opportunities offered by adherence to the Principles for Locally-led Adaptation can improve both reporting and processes towards more effective adaptation action.