Image: illustrates the linkages between an anchor facility and the various indirect jobs which depend on that facility for their own survival. One category of indirect jobs includes those located “upstream” from the anchor industry: in the numerous supply and service sectors which sell inputs (including raw materials, parts, machinery, utilities, and services) to the anchor facility. Another set of indirect jobs is found “downstream”: in the various consumer goods and services industries which require an initial population of employed workers nearby to serve as their own market. When those workers subsequently spend their earnings – on everything from homes to consumer goods to private services (like restaurants and dry cleaners), and even supporting public services from their tax payments – they create the economic foundation for thousands of downstream jobs.
Sustainable Energy Critical to Australia’s Aluminium Future
New research from the Centre for Future Work shows that the rapid transformation of Australia’s aluminium facilities to sustainable sources of electricity would spark substantial economic benefits: for the aluminium industry, its supply chain, and for the burgeoning renewable energy sector (which would achieve greater critical mass from major new power supply contracts).
The report, by Jim Stanford (the Centre’s Director) and Alia Armistead, looks in detail at the Tomago aluminium smelter in the Hunter region of NSW. It is Australia’s largest smelter, and is currently powered through electricity mostly sourced from coal-fired generation. The facility has pledged to move to renewable power sources by 2030 — and the new report confirms that this would underpin long-term industrial and economic benefits felt in all parts of the country.
The report reviews the worrisome deindustrailisation of Australia’s foothold in the global aluminium industry. Australia’s exports of raw bauxite have grown rapidly, but value-added aluminium manufacturing (including smelting) has declined. This undermines employment, exports, and spin-off jobs.
The study also reports results of macroeconomic simulations of the overall impacts of the Tomago facility on the national economy (including employment, incomes, GDP, and government revenue). These effects, because of the economic linkages between the smelter, its supply chain, and the consumer goods and services industries which depend on its continued existence, are very large. Our results indicate the Tomago facility ultimately supports:
- Over $1.2 billion in national GDP per year, with production benefits experienced in all states (70% in NSW).
- Household disposable incomes of almost $500 million.
- Direct and indirect employment of over 6000 jobs: in the smelter, in its various suppliers, and in downstream consumer industries.
- Incremental government revenues worth $465 million per year: two-thirds of which is captured by the Commonwealth, and $120 million by the NSW state government.
The study makes several recommendations for supporting Tomago’s transition to renewable energy, and enhancing Australia’s value-added aluminium presence. These include:
- A clear and sustained commitment to rapid roll-out of renewable energy sources: Government should assist and accelerate Tomago’s transition to renewable power with clear, powerful measures to support expanded renewable energy developments, appropriate capacities (including batteries and pumped hydro) for backing up variable renewable power supplies, and fiscal measures that acknowledge the contribution Tomago could make (through the scale of its renewable energy purchases, as well as its potential role in demand-response measures that stabilise the regional electricity grid) to support NSW’s transition to renewable energy.
- Full-cycle financial support and public equity: Our simulations confirm a large fiscal payback to state and Commonwealth governments arising from the operation of the Tomago smelter, its supply chain, and the downstream consumer industries which depend on its continued operation. This gives both levels of government a major fiscal stake in Tomago’s continuing operation. For that reason, in addition to supporting the roll-out of renewable energy, both governments should negotiate other forms of fiscal support for future capital improvements (including those tied to developments of renewable energy supply for the smelter).
- Leveraging public infrastructure and procurement: Considerable demand for aluminium products will be forthcoming in future years as a result of the unprecedented investments being made by governments at all levels in new physical infrastructure: ranging from transportation to utilities to public buildings. The business case for continued aluminium manufacturing in Australia can be incrementally strengthened with pro-active efforts on the part of government to ensure that these investments (which are ultimately paid for by Australian taxpayers) embody maximum Australian-made content in all building materials and inputs, including aluminium.
- A value-added trade policy: Australia’s laissez faire approach to international trade has concentrated Australia’s exports in the extraction and export of unprocessed or barely processed non-renewable resources; this has been coincident with a severe decline in domestic manufacturing and value-added activity, and a precarious dependence on imports to meet most domestic manufacturing needs. A rethinking of Australian trade policy could help reverse this damaging deindustrialisation. This must include active interventions to limit the inflow (often at prices below cost of production) of aluminium products from other countries which are not making reciprocal purchases of value-added merchandise from us. Trade policy should actively discourage exports of unprocessed bauxite, and instead require at least preliminary processing (and better yet, smelting) of Australian bauxite in Australian facilities.
Please see the full report, Sustainable Industrial Jobs in the Hunter: Aluminium Manufacturing and Australia’s Energy Advantage, by Jim Stanford and Alia Armistead.
Australia’s manufacturing industry re-invests 5 percent of GDP in new research and development, more than any other sector in the national economy. Manufacturing is an essential proving ground for the application of new product and process innovations, and manufactured capital goods are essential for the implementation of innovation in other sectors. A country cannot be an innovation leader without a strong domestic manufacturing capability.
Productivity growth in Australian manufacturing has exceeded national average rates by one-fifth over the past quarter- century. Productivity is especially strong in capital-intensive advanced manufacturing sectors (including primary aluminium manufacturing). High and growing productivity provides a strong foundation for strong incomes and tax revenues.
Manufacturing is an inherently export-intensive form of economic activity: manufacturing accounts for 40 percent of all Australian exports, far in excess of its 6 percent share of total GDP. A country without a viable manufacturing sector is prone to chronic trade and payments deficits (as Australia is experiencing at present), because it is effectively shut out of two-thirds of world exports.
Australian manufacturers purchase $250 billion per year in inputs, supplies, and services from other businesses in all sectors and regions of Australia’s economy. By “anchoring” complex supply chains, major advanced manufacturing facilities sustain production, jobs, and incomes far beyond their factory gates.
Source: Stanford, Jim (2020). A Fair Share for Australian Manufacturing: Manufacturing Renewal for the Post-COVID Economy (Canberra: Centre for Future Work).
Armistead, Alia, David Richardson, and Jim Stanford (2021). Missing a Stitch in Time: The Consequences of Underinvestment in Proper Upkeep of Australia’s Electricity Transmission and Distribution System (Canberra: Australia Institute), https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Missing-a-Stitch-in- Time-WEB-1.pdf.
Australia Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (2021). “Resources and Energy Quarterly, Historical Data,” http://www.industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief- Economist/Publications/Pages/Resources-and-energy-quarterly.aspx#.
Australia Department of Industry, Innovation and Science and Westpac Bank (2016). “China Resources Quarterly,” August, http://www.industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief- Economist/Publications/Documents/crq/CRQ-southern-winter-northern-summer- 2016.pdf.
Australian Energy Market Operator (2021). 2021 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, August (Melbourne: AEMO), https://www.aemo.com.au/- /media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2021/2021-nem- esoo.pdf?la=en&hash=D53ED10E2E0D452C79F97812BDD926ED.
Barbaro, Bianca and John Spoehr (2014). “Closing the Motor Vehicle Industry: The Impact on Australia.” (Adelaide: Australian Workplace Innovation and Social Research Centre and the National Institute of Economic & Industry Research).
Butler, Clark (2020). Why Aluminium Smelters Are a Critical Component in Australian Decarbonisation: A Case Study of Tomago Aluminium and the Hunter Region (Lakewood, OH: Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis), https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IEEFA_Why-Aluminium-Smelters-are- a-Critical-Component-in-Australian-Decarbonisation_June-2020.pdf.
Clean Energy Council (2021). Clean Energy Australia Report 2021 (Melbourne: Clean Energy Council), https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/clean-energy- australia/clean-energy-australia-report-2021.pdf.
Conway, Richard S., Jr. (2006). “The Economic Impact of the Washington State Aluminum Industry,” http://pcad.lib.washington.edu/link/5248/.
Cox, Lisa (2021). “Tomago, Australia’s Largest Aluminium Smelter, Vows to Switch to Renewable Energy by 2029,” The Guardian, 11 August, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/11/tomago-australias- largest-aluminium-smelter-vows-to-switch-to-renewable-energy-by-2029.
Dixon, Hugh, Fiona Stokes, and Ganesh Nana (2012). “Updated Manufacturing Multipliers from 2010/11 Data,” Industry Capability Network, http://www.icn.org.au/sites/default/files/BERL%202012.PDF.
Dunham, John (2016). “2016 Economic Impact of the Aluminum Industry: Methodology and Documentation,” http://aluminum.guerrillaeconomics.net/ assets/res/2016%20Aluminum%20Impact%20Methodology.pdf.
Ellsmoor, James (2019). “Renewable Energy Is Now the Cheapest Option – Even Without Subsidies,” Forbes, 15 June.
Flynn, Phil (2005). “Kentucky’s Estimated Primary Aluminum Industry Economic Impact,” in Rick Hall (ed.), Profile of Kentucky’s Aluminum Industry (Frankfort: Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development), pp. 25-34, https://thinkkentucky.com/kyedc/pdfs/Aluminum_Report.pdf.
Garnaut, Ross (2019). Superpower: Australia’s Low-Carbon Opportunity (Melbourne: Black Inc Books).
Geoscience Australia (2020). “Aluminium,” Classroom Resources (Canberra: Geoscience Australia), https://www.ga.gov.au/education/classroom- resources/minerals-energy/australian-mineral-facts/aluminium.
Graham, P. W., Hayward, J, Foster, J., Story, O., & Havas, L. (2018). GenCost 2018: Updated Projections of Electricity Generation Technology Costs (Canberra: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation).
Hill, Kim, Debra Menk, Joshua Cregger, and Michael Schultz (2015). “Contribution of the Automotive Industry to the Economies of all Fifty States and the United States.” (Ann Arbor: Center for Automotive Research), http://www.autoalliance.org/files/ dmfile/2015-Auto-Industry-Jobs-Report.pdf.
Hunter Jobs Alliance (2021). “Manufacturing Jobs in the Hunter, 2011-2021,” Briefing Note, August (Newcastle: Hunter Jobs Alliance), https://www.hunterjobsalliance.org.au/s/202108_ManufacturingJobsHunter_Briefing Note_HunterJobsAlliance.pdf.
Hunter Renewal and Hunter Jobs Alliance (2021) Future-Proofing the Hunter: Voice from Our Community (Newcastle: Hunter Renewal and Hunter Jobs Alliance),
Sustainable Industrial Jobs in the Hunter 58
International Aluminum Institute (2020). “Primary Aluminum Production,” http://www.world-aluminium.org/statistics/.
Karp, Paul (2020). “Australian Power Prices Forecast to Fall by 7% by 2022 as Cost of Renewables Drops,” The Guardian, 24 February.
Kunin, Roslyn (2003). “An Economic Study on the Use of Hydro Power in Kitimat for Aluminum Production as Opposed to Export,” http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/zonecours.hec.ca/ContentPages/14908313 91.pdf.
Lord, Michael (2019). From Mining to Making: Australia’s Future in Zero-Emissions Metal (Melbourne: University of Melbourne Energy Transition Hub).
Ludlow, Mark (2019). “Big Smelters Act as a ‘Battery’ for the Energy Grid,” Australian Financial Review, 18 October, https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/big-smelters- act-as-a-battery-for-the-energy-grid-20191018-p531xd.
Macdonald-Smith, Angela (2021). “AGL Working with Tomago Smelter on Clean Energy Options,” Australian Financial Review, 12 August, https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/agl-working-with-tomago-smelter-on-clean- energy-options-20210812-p58i38.
Mazengarb, Michael (2021a). “Portland Smelter Secures $160m Energy Deal to Stay Open and Act Like Giant Battery,” Renew Economy, 19 March, https://reneweconomy.com.au/portland-smelter-secures-160m-energy-deal-to-stay- open-and-act-like-giant-battery/.
Mazengarb, Michael (2021b). “NSW Plans to Transition Biggest Coal State into Renewable Energy Superpower,” Renew Economy, 29 September, https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-aims-to-cut-emissions-in-half-by-2030-with-37- billion-clean-energy-surge/.
Nahum, Dan (2020). Powering Onwards: Australia’s Opportunity to Reinvigorate Manufacturing through Renewable Energy (Canberra: Centre for Future Work).
New South Wales Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (2020). NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap: Building an Energy Superpower, Detailed Report (Sydney: State of NSW), https://energy.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020- 11/NSW%20Electricity%20Infrastructure%20Roadmap%20- %20Detailed%20Report.pdf.
Parkinson, Giles (2020). “Australia’s big smelters could also be giant batteries, and go green at same time,” Renew Economy, 12 June, https://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-big-smelters-could-also-be-giant-batteries- and-go-green-at-same-time-86721/.
Phillips, H. Fraser, Wen Tian, and Steve Bristo (2015). “Aluminum Market Outlook, Fourth Quarter 2015,” RBC Capital Markets, October, http://www.cqrda.ca/wp- content/uploads/2015/11/Aluminium.pdf.
Richard, Craig (2019). “Australia to Reach 50% Renewables Generation by 2030,” Wind Power Monthly, 29 May.
Stanford, Jim (2018). Raising the Bar: How Government Can Use its Economic Leverage to Lift Labour Standards Throughout the Economy (Canberra: Centre for Future Work), https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/theausinstitute/pages/2770/attachments/ori ginal/1526880027/Raising_the_Bar_Formatted_Final.pdf?1526880027.
Stanford, Jim (2020). A Fair Share for Australian Manufacturing: Manufacturing Renewal for the Post-COVID Economy (Canberra: Centre for Future Work).
U.S. Geological Survey (2020). “Mineral Commodity Summaries,” http://minerals.usgs. gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/.
Von Nesson, Joseph (2015). “Anchoring the Aluminum Industry: The Economic Impact of Century Aluminum on South Carolina,” University of South Carolina, March, http://www.savemtholly.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Century-Aluminum- Economic-Impact-Study.pdf.