Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG) Report: identifies actions for an Australian government that has failed in duty of care

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FULL REPORT

This is a report that the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG) wished it did not need to publish.

ASLCG was formed in 2021 by a group of senior former military and intelligence leaders concerned that the security implications of climate change were not understood or addressed by governments. The ASLCG focus is on human security in the broadest sense: the safety of people and communities and the systems they rely upon.

That concern is based upon the science developed over decades which demonstrates climate change is accelerating, is already dangerous, and has become an existential threat to human civilisation as we know it. Together with nuclear war, it is the greatest threat to humanity. Australia, as the hottest and driest continent on Earth, is particularly exposed to that threat.1

The first step in formulating security policy to address any threat is to soundly assess the risks and opportunities it presents, both current and as they are likely to evolve. This requires scientific and analytical expertise, and appropriate intelligence capacity to make such assessments.

The toxic nature of the climate wars in Australia over decades, and the priority given to preserving Australia’s high-carbon fossil fuel industries, has meant that successive governments have never commissioned a comprehensive assessment of climate risk.

the priority given to preserving Australia’s high-carbon fossil fuel industries, has meant that successive governments have never commissioned a comprehensive assessment of climate risk.

The fundamental duty of any government is “to protect the people” and thus fully assessing climate risk in order to avoid or mitigate it must be a priority. But leaders – in business, politics and public administration — have not acknowledged the full measure of the risk, so mitigation is inadequate.

ASLCG was encouraged that, after the 2022 election, the ALP acted on our suggestion that a national climate and security risk assessment should be carried out as a matter of urgency as the basis for formulating policy. Unfortunately, implementation of that commitment has faltered:

— The assessment of climate risks external to Australia, carried out by the Office of National Intelligence (ONI) and completed in November 2022, has been classified and hidden from politicians overseeing security and climate policy, and from the public;

— Climate was mentioned only in passing in the Defence Security Review;

— The climate analysis in the 2023 Intergenerational Report was only partial;

— A domestically-focused National Climate Risk Assessment is under way, but its approach to assessing risks is in our view seriously deficient.

The government also has in progress a National Adaptation Plan Issues Paper and a Climate Risk
and Opportunity Management Program for the public sector 2024–26.

The fundamental failing running through this work is the refusal to accept the size and immediacy of climate risk in 2024, its compounding nature and its future implications, as the basis for mitigation and adaptation policy.

The present report provides an overview of an efficacious climate risk assessment methodology, analyses the current failure, explores four case studies and identifies specific and necessary priority actions for the government.

Key findings

  • —  Climate disruption now presents the greatest, and potentially existential, threat to society and human security in Australia and around the world. A new insecurity shadows our lives and the relations between nations. The Asia–Pacific, the highest-risk region in the world, faces devastating climate impacts, and Australia as a hot and dry continent is particularly vulnerable.
  • —  Responding adequately to climate disruption is fundamental to the survival of the nation and
    the global community. In understanding climate– security threats, the first and fundamental step is to holistically assess systemic climate risks and how they cascade and compound through physical and human systems. This has not been done by Australia.
  • —  Lack of assessment by a succession of Australian governments has left our nation with a poor understanding of the looming climate risks,
    so it is not prepared to face global warming’s consequences and mitigate the risks.
  • —  Australia remains “missing in action” on climate– security risks, with climate downplayed to a cameo role in defence and security policy and planning.

Key recommendations for the Australian government to build an integrated National Climate-Security Strategy

  • —  Establish a Climate Threat Intelligence branch within the Office of National Intelligence with outputs including an annual, de-classified briefing to Parliament.
  • —  Establish an Abrupt Climate Change Early Warning System.
  • —  Legislate a Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act.
  • —  Publish a declassified version of the 2022 ONI assessment of climate and security risks.
  • —  Plan and integrate climate research in Australia in a manner that will deliver a sound platform for realistic risk assessment and government policy- making.
  • —  Rebuild the climate policy-making capacity of the Australian Public Service and overcome the bureaucratic silos that are making systemic analysis of climate risks difficult to achieve.

APPENDIX: KEY ACTIONS

An integrated, whole-of-government understanding of the risks

  • —  Recognise that climate disruption is an existential risk to human civilisation, and the greatest security threat to Australia and to societies around the world, requiring an emergency mobilisation in response.
  • —  Establish a Climate Threat Intelligence Unit within the Office of National Intelligence (ONI), with outputs including an annual, de-classified briefing to Parliament.
  • —  Establish an Abrupt Climate Change Early Warning System coordinated by the Climate Threat Intelligence Unit.
  • —  Plan and integrate climate research in Australia in a manner that will deliver what the government needs for realistic risk assessment and policy-making; and rebuild the climate policy-making capacity of the Australian Public Service;
  • —  Overcome the bureaucratic silos that are making systemic analysis of climate-security risks almost impossible to achieve.
  • —  Implement an integrated climate risk-management methodology across government, based upon a strategic global perspective of climate risk that avoids silos and recognises the systemic, cascading nature of the climate threat.

Leadership

  • —  Take leadership in encouraging national and international preparedness and prevention (emissions mitigation) to address the climate threat, and in engaging the Australian community about climate–security risks.
  • —  Make human security and the Australian community central to the duty of government to “protect
    the people”, recognising that securitising climate threats through enhanced militarisation and claims to national security secrecy are not a coherent response.
  • — Build an Australian National Prevention and Resilience Framework with coherent emergency processes across relevant areas including energy and water, logistics, health, industry and agriculture, research and nature.

Regional cooperation and support

  • —  Understand that global cooperation rather than conflict is key to responding to the climate crisis, and act accordingly by building alliances with big and small Asia–Pacific governments for a regional climate mobilisation.
  • —  Increase support for developing nations to facilitate their preparedness and prevention plans.
  • —  Partner with nations in the region to deploy a monitoring system to identify potential food insecurity hotspots, and fund enhancement of food, supply chain and energy resilience in the region.

Protect and prevent

  • —  Adopt a goal to protect the most vulnerable communities, nations and natural systems.
  • —  Recognise that the most damaging climate impacts occur at the high end of the range of possibilities, and ensure mitigation actions are consistent with avoiding the plausible worst-case scenarios.
  • —  Prevent devastating climate impacts by mobilising all the resources necessary to reach zero emissions as fast as possible. Develop the capacity to prevent irreversible tipping points and draw down greenhouse gases back to safer conditions in the long term.
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