As a reminder of what Australia’s targets are — we have pledged to bring emissions 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and reach net zero emissions by 2050.

And in the past few weeks the federal government has released four reports on Australia’s greenhouse gas pollution that highlight just how far away we are from meeting those targets.

Also pouring cold water on Mr Bowen’s parade was Matt Kean, chair of the government’s independent Climate Change Authority, who said: “Emissions need to fall faster to reach Australia’s 2030 target.”

Even greater ambition will be required to reach the 2050 net zero target, he added.

So now we’ve got all the data, what does it actually show?

How fast is Australia’s progress and what’s actually driving that change — or holding it back?

Here are six charts that tell the story.

Overall emissions cuts have more or less stalled since the pandemic

The government had been reporting cuts to our emissions pretty consistently since 2005.

But the cuts seemed to stop about 2020.

As Mr Kean noted, emissions will need to fall at a rate that is 500 per cent as fast as the rate seen in 2023-2024 to meet our 2030 target.

emissions will need to fall at a rate that is 500 per cent as fast as the rate seen in 2023-2024 to meet our 2030 target.

Australia has done very little to reduce emissions from industry

The burning of fossil fuels — coal, oil and gas — is responsible for the vast majority of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere globally.

But that steady decline in the chart above? That’s not driven by reduced burning of fossil fuels.

Since 2005, Australia has actually done relatively little on that front. In fact, the latest data shows industry emissions are at pretty similar levels to what they were back then.

The only really big cuts so far have happened in the land sector — by felling fewer trees, and planting more. (In the jargon of carbon reporting, that’s called Land Use, or more formally Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)).

All other emissions combined are now nearly identical to what they were in 2005.

And here’s what our emissions look like in each sector when you exclude land-use emissions. Emissions from electricity — the biggest cause of emissions in our economy — have been dropping significantly as renewables replace the use of fossil fuels.

Transport has started coming down too. But that’s been offset by increases in other sectors.

The biggest cuts in emissions are unreliable

As you saw above, the land use sector — or “LULUCF” — does the heavy lifting when it comes to cutting Australia’s emissions.

Those numbers are actually unreliable. So much so that the government changes its mind about those emissions every single year.

Below is a comparison of how the government estimates land sector emissions over time. Each year, the numbers are revised down so industry targets become smaller and the government can declare progress.

That’s pretty convenient for the government — but it and its independent Climate Change Authority say there’s nothing fishy about that, it’s just reflecting improvements in the science behind the estimations.

Electricity cuts are the key — but the government simply assumes they’ll happen

Between now and 2030, the projections show that it’s cuts to emissions in electricity that need to do the bulk of the work getting us to our 2030 target.

To achieve that, the government will need policies to drive the transition to renewables to 82 per cent by 2030.

But in a separate document released by the government, which details the methodology for its projections, there is one important footnote. It says:

“The projections assume the Australian Government’s 82 per cent renewable electricity generation target for on-grid electricity is met by 2030.”

So, far from being a meaningful projection about how the electricity system will lower its emissions, the cut is simply assumed — and so are state-based renewable targets.

But that’s far from a sure thing.

The federal government has committed to underwrite investment in the renewable generators themselves, but that can only work if massive transmission projects get built despite some communities opposing them, and if the workforce to build the new infrastructure is trained up and ready to go.

There’s been considerable doubt about both of those things happening.

Even the government’s Climate Change Authority chair pointedly noted there’s a need for “further government effort to overcome barriers and ensure Australia reaches 82 per cent renewables on schedule”.

If that fails, the 2030 targets look likely to fail too.

2050 target still just a hope

And what about net zero by 2050?

Well things don’t look so good, based on existing policies.

The current projections only take us to 2040 but by then, the trajectory is nowhere near as fast as it needs to be to reach net zero by 2050.

Earlier this year, the Climate Change Authority released a report on this, and it didn’t mince its words. It said, “Across all sectors, a significant and urgent ramp up in effort, investment and coordination is required and there are barriers that will need to be overcome if Australia is to achieve its target.”

In other words, we need to urgently do much more to reach the 2050 target.

It looks like policies to build renewables peter out about 2030. And as we’ve seen, the land sector emissions have stopped helping already.

Here’s the chart the government released, combined with the 2050 target — it’s quite a gap.

Looking at all the charts above, a clear picture emerges — most of the cuts so far were done in the land sector, and now they’re starting to get going in electricity, but whether that progresses as needed remains to be seen.

The minister for climate change and energy didn’t respond to specific questions but a spokeswoman said: “The department’s projections are prepared consistent with international reporting requirements and show how Australia can deliver on its targets.

“The projections forecast that Australia will cut emissions to 42.6 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and beat the legislated 10-year emissions budget by 152 million tonnes,” she said.

Regardless, one thing’s for sure, to get to net zero, all industries will need to do much more. And so far, there aren’t the right policies in place to make that happen.

Editor’s note (11/12/24): An earlier version of this story showed the final chart with the 2030 targets displaced by one year. That has been corrected.