Russia and the US are both struggling to revive their declining coal mining sectors … and Australian coal producers are losing their markets

Bob Burton in Coalwire: Russia and the US are both struggling to revive their declining coal mining sectors. In Russia, the international response to the invasion of Ukraine deprived exporters of access to traditional markets in Europe, with alternative Asian importers only buying shipments at heavily discounted rates. Accessing Asian markets to the east came at the cost of far higher transport costs. The recent decline in global thermal coal prices has piled further pressure onto exporters. As the war drags on, Russian coal companies are incurring mounting losses and shuttering some mines.

Prices are down nearly 80% since 2022, and more than half of producers are losing money.

In the US, the Trump administration sought to sell federal coal leases in the hope of boosting production. One auction drew only one unsatisfactory bid, and another auction was postponed. A key justification promoted by utilities for extending the life of old US coal units is the projected increase in electricity demand growth required to support new data centres. Across the Atlantic, a key Bank of England committee has warned of the growing financial risks stemming from the overvaluation of US tech sector stocks.

Russian coal industry losses mount: In the first seven months of 2025, Russia’s coal industry recorded losses of 225 billion roubles (US$2.8 billion) due to declining export coal prices and rising transport costs. While exporters sought to counter the European Union ban on imports of Russian coal by switching exports to the Asian market, they did so by offering significant discounts on the global prices. The Financial Times estimates that coal was discounted by about 60 per cent in early 2022, just after the invasion of Ukraine, but is now about 20 per cent cheaper than global prices. Russian thermal coal transport costs rose from approximately 50 per cent of the sale price to 90 per cent as the rail network operator prioritised higher-value cargo, such as oil. While Russia succeeded in occupying coal mines in the Donbas region, private companies are turning the loss-making projects back over to the occupation governments. Pavlo Kukhta, Ukraine’s former deputy Minister of the Economy, estimates government subsidies reached about US$1 billion a year before the war but ended after Russian forces seized the mines. “Now the industry is collapsing”, he said. (Financial Times)

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Australian thermal coal producers are losing their growth markets, Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis, October 2025. (Pdf)

This 10-page briefing paper provides a concise overview of trends affecting coal demand in Southeast Asia and the implications for Australian coal exporters.

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From ‘We don’t have time’

From Russia’s Coal Collapse to a Clean Energy Breakthrough

Russia’s coal economy — once a pillar of post-war power — is unraveling fast. Prices are down nearly 80% since 2022, and more than half of producers are losing money. A new in-depth Forbes analysis by We Don’t Have Time founder Ingmar Rentzhog reveals that 23 coal companies have already shut down and another 53 are at risk as exports vanish and subsidies fail. Even the Kuzbass mining heartland has plunged deep into deficit. At the same time, the next energy era is taking over. In California, battery capacity has tripled since 2020 to more than 13 GW, redefining how power systems handle demand. Storage costs have dropped 90%, making it one of the fastest-growing assets in global energy. It’s a clear turning point: the fossil age is breaking, and the clean economy is accelerating. But this progress depends on one fragile foundation — trust in science. As misinformation spreads and denial grows louder, the greatest risk now isn’t technological — it’s psychological. That’s why We Don’t Have Time is calling on everyone to support our  #MakeScienceGreatAgaincampaign — to defend science, reason, and facts as the engines of human progress. ➡💚 Explore the full analysis on Forbes — and get inspired by how fast change is accelerating

­Russia’s Coal Collapse Marks The End Of Fossil Fuels’ Post-War Illusion­

Our World in Data:  The Race Between Planetary  and Social Tipping Points

As Russia’s coal industry implodes and clean energy surges ahead, the next tipping points won’t be geological—they’ll be psychological. The fossil era is ending, but whether the transition succeeds will depend on how fast societies can overcome fear, denial, and political inertia. In an exclusive interview with We Don’t Have Time, Our World in Data’s Hannah Ritchie rejects the narrative of helplessness. Humanity, she argues, has solved monumental challenges before—from slashing child mortality to curbing hunger—and the same forces of knowledge, innovation, and cooperation can now drive rapid decarbonization. “We already have most of the tools we need to build a cleaner, safer world,”Ritchie says. “What’s missing is the resolve to scale them up.” But while technology and willpower define one side of the story, Earth’s systems are sending urgent warnings from the other. According to the Global Tipping Points Report 2025, warm-water coral reefs—the “rainforests of the sea,” sustaining a quarter of marine life—have likely passed the point of no return.As report co-lead Professor Tim Lenton warns: “Our Global Tipping Points Report 2025 shows that for warm-water coral reefs we really don’t have time – as they are already passing a tipping point of widespread die-off. As we enter the danger zone above 1.5°C global warming, where further climate tipping points lurk, we don’t have time for backsliding. We have to seize positive tipping point opportunities to accelerate towards zero emissions.”Yet Lenton’s message isn’t only a warning—it’s also a map for hope. Just as physical systems can unravel, social and technological systems can self-reinforce in the opposite direction. These positive tipping points—from mass EV adoption to plummeting solar costs—are already driving exponential progress. The key is aligning our societal tipping points with the planetary ones now in play. Together, these stories capture the crossroads of 2025: the fossil economy is faltering, the clean economy is emerging, and the balance between ecological and psychological tipping points will decide what happens next.

­Hannah Ritchie on Hope,  Honesty, and Climate Reality­

­Global Tipping Points Report 2025­

Move The Travel: From Steam to Clean

We once moved the world with coal and steam — now that era is over. What few realize is that we already have the technology to travel smarter — cutting pollution and reducing fossil-fuel dependence across air, land, and sea. More than 4,490 people have already joined our #MoveTheTravel campaign to explore how innovation is reshaping global mobility — and how we can all be part of the shift. ➡️ Join the movement and see how we move the future.

­Learn how to #MoveTheTravel­