Interactive guide to electorates in the 2025 Australian election: from safe to marginal

By Rob | April 6, 2025

Familiarise yourself with the state of play ahead of the election with the Guardian data-driven electorate guide

See all Guardian Australian election 2025 coverage

Andy Ball, Josh Nicholas and Nick Evershed

Fri 28 Mar 2025

Electorates to watch

Bennelong

Labor narrowly won Bennelong in 2022, but boundary changes have made it notionally a Liberal marginal. One of the Coalition’s top target seats in Sydney

Hunter

A Labor seat for more than 100 years, Hunter covers rural areas and mining towns. The drift from Labor among working-class regional voters makes this a potential Nationals gain

Gilmore

Andrew Constance makes another bid to enter federal parliament for the Liberals after losing to Labor’s Fiona Phillips by a tiny margin in this NSW south coast seat in 2022

Bradfield

Nicolette Boele hopes to take another scalp for the teals on Sydney’s north shore, helped by boundary changes and retirement of sitting Liberal member Paul Fletcher

Calare

Potentially a three-way contest in the NSW central west, with former Nationals MP Andrew Gee now standing as an independent

Cowper

Independent Caz Heise challenges Nationals again in NSW mid-north coast seat, this time with backing of Climate 200 funding

Chisholm

A redistribution has halved Labor’s notional margin to 3.3%, making the seat in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs a likely Liberal target

Macnamara

The Greens and Liberals all but tied for second place behind Labor’s Josh Burns in 2022. The fallout from the Israel-Gaza war is a potential wild card factor

Goldstein

Former Liberal MP Tim Wilson attempts to retake the south-east Melbourne seat won by teal Zoe Daniel in 2022. She may gain a slightly increased buffer from redistribution

Wannon

Maverick independent Alex Dyson beat Labor into third place in 2022 and returns for another shot at defeating former Liberal minister Dan Tehan

Kooyong

Teal Monique Ryan’s 2.9% margin has been cut by a huge redistribution since she defeated Josh Frydenberg in 2022, but by how much?

Brisbane

One of three Brisbane seats sensationally won by the Greens in 2022. Stephen Bates will again need to push Labor into third place to have a chance of holding on

Griffith

Max Chandler-Mather won a sensational victory for the Greens in 2022, but with Labor and the LNP both close on primary votes, preference flows will be crucial

Ryan

The once-safe LNP seat in outer western Brisbane went to the Greens in 2022. The Coalition would dearly love to take it back

Leichhardt

The retirement of the long-serving Warren Entsch gives Labor hope they might make a gain in far north Queensland, but a 3.4% margin is still a tough ask

Boothby

Nicolle Flint stepped down as Liberal MP before the 2022 election, and Labor took the seat in Adelaide’s south. Now Flint is back to try to regain it

Franklin

Labor’s Julie Collins won comfortably in 2022, but the anti-salmon farming independent Peter George is an unknown quantity in the southern Tasmanian seat

Lyons

Held by Labor on a margin of less than 1%, this looks like a must-win for the Coalition if they are to form government

Curtin

Kate Chaney is perhaps the most vulnerable of the teals who won in 2022, holding the Perth seat on a margin of just 1.3%

Tangney

Sam Lim won a shock victory in 2022 and will have a fight on his hands to retain Labor’s most marginal WA seat, with a 2.8% margin

Key

Labor
The Nationals
Liberal Party
The Greens
Independents
Katter’s Party
Centre Alliance

Electorate margins


Adelaide	ALP	11.9%
Aston	ALP	3.6%
Ballarat	ALP	13%
Banks	LIB	2.6%
Barker	LIB	16.6%
Barton	ALP	12%
Bass	LIB	1.4%
Bean	ALP	12.9%
Bendigo	ALP	11.2%
Bennelong ^*	LIB	0.04%
Berowra	LIB	7.6%
Blair	ALP	5.2%
Blaxland	ALP	13%
Bonner	LIB	3.4%
Boothby	ALP	3.3%
Bowman	LIB	5.5%
Braddon	LIB	8%
Bradfield	LIB	2.5%
Brand	ALP	17.1%
Brisbane	GRN	3.7%
Bruce	ALP	5.3%
Bullwinkel	ALP	3.3%
Burt	ALP	13.3%
Calare ^†	NAT	9.7%
Calwell	ALP	12.4%
Canberra	ALP	12.2%
Canning	LIB	1.2%
Capricornia	NAT	6.6%
Casey	LIB	1.4%
Chifley	ALP	13.6%
Chisholm	ALP	3.3%
Clark	IND	20.8%
Cook	LIB	11.6%
Cooper	ALP	7.8%
Corangamite	ALP	7.8%
Corio	ALP	12.5%
Cowan	ALP	9.9%
Cowper	NAT	2.4%
Cunningham	ALP	15.1%
Curtin	IND	1.3%
Dawson	NAT	10.4%
Deakin	LIB	0.02%
Dickson	LIB	1.7%
Dobell	ALP	6.6%
Dunkley	ALP	6.8%
Durack	LIB	4.7%
Eden-Monaro	ALP	6.1%
Fadden	LIB	10.6%
Fairfax	NAT	9%
Farrer	LIB	16.3%
Fenner	ALP	15.7%
Fisher	LIB	8.7%
Flinders	LIB	6.2%
Flynn	NAT	3.8%
Forde	LIB	4.2%
Forrest	LIB	4.2%
Fowler	IND	1.1%
Franklin	ALP	13.7%
Fraser	ALP	16.6%
Fremantle	ALP	16.9%
Gellibrand	ALP	11.2%
Gilmore	ALP	0.2%
Gippsland	NAT	20.6%
Goldstein	IND	3.3%
Gorton	ALP	10%
Grayndler	ALP	17.3%
Greenway	ALP	7.9%
Grey	LIB	10.1%
Griffith	GRN	10.5%
Groom	LIB	6.9%
Hasluck	ALP	10%
Hawke	ALP	7.6%
Herbert	LIB	11.8%
Hindmarsh	ALP	8.9%
Hinkler	NAT	10.1%
Holt	ALP	7.1%
Hotham	ALP	11.6%
Hughes	LIB	3.5%
Hume	LIB	6.9%
Hunter	ALP	4.8%
Indi	IND	8.9%
Isaacs	ALP	9.5%
Jagajaga	ALP	12.2%
Kennedy	KAP	13.1%
Kingsford Smith	ALP	13.3%
Kingston	ALP	16.4%
Kooyong	IND	2.2%
La Trobe	LIB	8.4%
Lalor	ALP	12.8%
Leichhardt	LIB	3.4%
Lilley	ALP	10.5%
Lindsay	LIB	6.1%
Lingiari	ALP	1.7%
Longman	LIB	3.1%
Lyne	NAT	13.8%
Lyons	ALP	0.9%
Macarthur	ALP	9.8%
Mackellar	IND	3.3%
Macnamara	ALP	12.2%
Macquarie	ALP	6.3%
Makin	ALP	10.8%
Mallee	NAT	19%
Maranoa	NAT	22.1%
Maribyrnong	ALP	13%
Mayo	CA	12.3%
McEwen	ALP	3.8%
McMahon	ALP	10.5%
McPherson	LIB	9.3%
Melbourne	GRN	6.5%
Menzies ^*	ALP	0.4%
Mitchell	LIB	10.5%
Monash ^†	LIB	2.9%
Moncrieff	LIB	11.2%
Moore	LIB	0.9%
Moreton	ALP	9.1%
New England	NAT	15.2%
Newcastle	ALP	17.9%
Nicholls	NAT	3.4%
O’Connor	LIB	6.7%
Oxley	ALP	11.6%
Page	NAT	10.7%
Parkes	NAT	18.2%
Parramatta	ALP	3.7%
Paterson	ALP	2.6%
Pearce	ALP	8.8%
Perth	ALP	14.4%
Petrie	LIB	4.4%
Rankin	ALP	9.1%
Reid	ALP	5.2%
Richmond	ALP	8.2%
Riverina	NAT	9.7%
Robertson	ALP	2.2%
Ryan	GRN	2.6%
Scullin	ALP	15.4%
Shortland	ALP	6%
Solomon	ALP	8.4%
Spence	ALP	12.9%
Sturt	LIB	0.5%
Swan	ALP	9.4%
Sydney	ALP	16.5%
Tangney	ALP	2.8%
Wannon	LIB	3.8%
Warringah	IND	9.4%
Watson	ALP	15.2%
Wentworth	IND	6.8%
Werriwa	ALP	5.3%
Whitlam	ALP	8.3%
Wide Bay	NAT	11.3%
Wills	ALP	4.6%
Wright	LIB	10.9%

*The notional incumbent for Bennelong and Menzies has changed based on the estimated margins after redistribution. Labor is the actual incumbent in Bennelong, and the actual incumbent in Menzies is a Liberal party MP. †Russell Broadbent won Monash as a Liberal in 2022, but left the Liberals in 2023. He is running as an independent in 2025. Calare was Won by Andrew Gee for the Nationals in 2022, but Gee left the party in 2023, and will contest as an independent in 2025.

Notes

In the election there will be a total of 150 electorates. This is one fewer than at the 2022 election, as two electorates were abolished due to redistributions by the AEC, and one new one – Bullwinkel in Western Australia – was created.

The list of candidates includes only those announced by the major parties and prominent minor parties to date. It will be updated with the full list of confirmed candidates when that becomes available.

Thanks to Griffith University’s Relational Insights Data Lab for providing data and analysis for this interactive feature.

Seat margins following electorate boundary redistributions since the 2022 election are courtesy of the ABC’s Antony Green.

Almost all the demographic, wealth and infrastructure data was extracted from the 2021 census or other Australian Bureau of Statistics datasets such as the survey of income and housing. Census data was adjusted to take into account the redistribution of electorate boundaries since 2021.

All the data was adjusted to the latest commonwealth electorate boundaries using population-weighted correspondence files.

Posted in VEN - Good News on Climate Action - Blog