Trump is not ‘game over’ for climate action

from Oxfam America

The policies of a Trump administration will deeply harm US and global climate action. But predictions that this is ‘game over’ for climate are wrong. The fight for climate action in the US will continue at the Federal, state and local level, and the rest of the world must do its part. A few facts to keep in mind:  

• There is a very strong US climate movement that has deep connections with a wide range of groups working on economic, racial and social justice. Even if it cannot change the mind of a Trump administration, there are many other places where it can and will affect climate policy.  
• Massive levels of tax credits for green energy are baked into US law, in particular the Inflation Reduction Act. The new administration may not be able to secure a majority to undo it. There is already a political and economic constituency among Republicans that wants to keep them. For example, 18 Republican Congress members have already gone on the record to oppose cuts to clean energy tax credits. https://www.eenews.net/articles/some-house-republicans-warn-against-climate-law-repeal/

• Around two-thirds of the US economy and population is in states and cities whose leaders are formally committed to the Paris Agreement – they can take significant action to lower carbon pollution quickly. requiring electricity is renewable. Half of US states, representing more than half the US population, have committed to 100% clean energy.
• A few states are considering bills to make oil companies pay for climate damages. Vermont has already passed such a law: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/vermont-law-fossil-fuel-companies-pay-climate-damages-rcna154964
• Research shows that if states and local government act ambitiously on climate, even if the Federal government does nothing to help, the US could reduce its emissions by 60% below 2005 levels by 2035. Not enough, but substantial. Even if there were maximum federal rollbacks, we modeled a scenario in which recent legislation and regulations from the federal government, including the IRA, BIL, and recently finalized EPA regulations, are removed. Under this scenario, continued non-federal action can achieve a 48% reduction by 2035. (See page 52 of this study: https://cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2024-09/CGS_Toward%202035_Forging%20a%20High-Ambition%20US%20Climate%20Pathway_September%202024.pdf).
• Significant pressure can be put on companies directly – via consumer pressure and boycotts – to shift to clean energy and to deliver on their existing pledges without greenwashing and while respecting human rights of workers and communities their operations affect.
• We will have to convince more of the US public that climate action is an existential threat that requires much more political attention and funding – and that rich polluters must be made to pay. The climate movement will have to be more inventive and ambitious than ever.